Trade rung-event markets
A rung-event market asks one question: does this rung fall by this date? It is two SPL tokens, YES and NO, fully collateralized in USDC, and it settles by reading the rung's own account. No oracle, no committee and no venue decides the outcome.
The contract
| Pays at settlement | |
|---|---|
| 1 YES | 1 USDC if the rung's claim began on or before the expiry |
| 1 NO | 1 USDC if the expiry passed with the rung still Open |
One YES plus one NO is always worth exactly 1 USDC, so a pair can be minted from 1 USDC at any time before expiry and merged back into 1 USDC.
Markets in v0 run on Q-160, Q-192 and T-256k at three expiries, 2027-12-31, 2028-12-31 and 2030-12-31 (23:59:59 UTC). The quantum-signal market opens with C-160.
Hedge or underwrite
- To hedge (you want a payout if a rung falls): mint pairs, keep YES, sell NO.
- To underwrite (you think the rung holds): mint pairs, keep NO, sell YES.
YES and NO are classic SPL tokens, so any Solana venue that lists SPL tokens can trade them. Canary runs no exchange of its own.
Mint and merge
- Open Markets and pick a rung.
- In the row for an expiry, enter an amount in USDC and choose Mint pairs. You receive that many YES and that many NO.
- To exit before expiry without trading, enter a number of pairs and choose Merge: one YES plus one NO returns 1 USDC. Merging closes once the expiry passes or the rung falls.
Resolution
Resolution is permissionless: anyone can call it, and Canary's crank calls it for every market as soon as it can.
- YES once the rung reads Solved and its
event_ts(the time the claim began) is on or before the expiry. A claim that began before the expiry counts, even if its verification finished after. - NO once the expiry has passed and the rung still reads Open 300 slots (about two minutes) after the first resolve call past the expiry: time for any claim begun before the expiry to finish.
The quantum-signal market resolves YES if Q-160 falls while C-160 still reads Open: the case where the cause is most likely quantum.
Redeem
After resolution, open the market and choose Redeem. Each winning token returns 1 USDC, less the settlement fee of 1.0 % of the winning redemption. Losing tokens are worth nothing.
| You redeem | Gross | Fee (1.0 %) | You receive |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1,000 YES after a fall | 1,000 USDC | 10 USDC | 990 USDC |
| 1,000 NO after an expiry | 1,000 USDC | 10 USDC | 990 USDC |
Minting and merging carry no fee. See Fees and settlement for where fees go.
Open-interest caps
Each rung has a cap on the open interest its markets can carry, set at no more than 1 % of the low end of the classical cost to break it, about $10M for Q-160. Buying YES and then paying for the brute-force attack never pays. Only unresolved markets count against a cap.
Reading a price as a date
YES and NO are ordinary SPL tokens, so they trade wherever Solana tokens trade; the app reads their prices from Jupiter's price API once a minute. A YES price is the market's probability that the rung falls by that expiry. Across the three expiries, the prices trace a market-implied date curve: the landing page draws it as the hourglass. Between two expiries t₁ < t₂ with YES prices p₁ ≤ p₂, the implied chance of a fall in that interval, given none before, is
Who can trade
Markets exclude US persons in v0. The app asks you to confirm that you are not one before it prepares a market transaction.